Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #394 of 1,000

P0338

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 60,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 800

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 412Deviation -R 388

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 800. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 273

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 351 to R 3 778
Finished ahead: 272 / 1,000 (27,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #462 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,12% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.629
Mean bets / session: 2.067
Loss multiplier: 1.0089×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,6% / 57,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 72912 wagers · RTP 145,12%

BaccaratR 1 8298 wagers · RTP 78,18%

CrashR 1 1175 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 9064 wagers · RTP 246,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 7353 wagers · RTP 67,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7063 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6883 wagers · RTP 89,39%

American RouletteR 4772 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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