Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #564 of 1,000

P0339

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 9,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 572

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 429

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 112Deviation -R 2 317

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 429. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 905

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 693 to R 3 687
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #412 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.565
Mean bets / session: 1.419
Loss multiplier: 1.0711×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,4% / 72,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6993 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 6963 wagers · RTP 139,66%

CrashR 6963 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4692 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2571 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2521 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2251 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2131 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies