Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #154 of 1,000

P0340

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 90,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 658

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 658

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 160Deviation R 818

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 658. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 498

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 470 to R 1 447
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #353 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.328
Mean bets / session: 1.994
Loss multiplier: 1.0307×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,4% / 49,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5594 wagers · RTP 176,23%

BaccaratR 5484 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

CrashR 2832 wagers · RTP 94,70%

BlackjackR 2472 wagers · RTP 99,60%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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