Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #284 of 1,000

P0341

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 64,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 741

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 259

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 53Deviation -R 206

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 259. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 672

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 064 to R 3 138
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #381 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.372
Mean bets / session: 1.401
Loss multiplier: 1.0779×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,4% / 78,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 1885 wagers · RTP 115,56%

Three-Reel SlotR 4852 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2481 wagers · RTP 210,55%

European RouletteR 2331 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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