Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #84 of 1,000

P0343

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 96,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 14 446

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 4 446

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 234Deviation R 4 680

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 4 446. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 924

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 700 to R 3 030
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #416 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.703
Mean bets / session: 1.842
Loss multiplier: 1.0522×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,3% / 78,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3267 wagers · RTP 153,36%

BaccaratR 1 1206 wagers · RTP 113,45%

BlackjackR 9475 wagers · RTP 19,54%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5633 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2391 wagers · RTP 1 000,00%

American RouletteR 1861 wagers · RTP 1 800,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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