Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #459 of 1,000

P0344

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 18,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 465

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 535

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 265Deviation -R 1 270

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 535. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 664

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 173 to R 3 670
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #380 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.341
Mean bets / session: 2.434
Loss multiplier: 1.034×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,3% / 78,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 53313 wagers · RTP 108,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7379 wagers · RTP 79,07%

CrashR 6173 wagers · RTP 44,37%

Three-Reel SlotR 5893 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4092 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3772 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3532 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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