Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #558 of 1,000

P0346

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 2,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 622

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 378

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 279Deviation -R 2 099

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 378. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 781

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 140 to R 1 981
Finished ahead: 258 / 1,000 (25,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #398 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.344
Mean bets / session: 1.9
Loss multiplier: 1.0676×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,7% / 50,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 6795 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6625 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5804 wagers · RTP 12,33%

CrashR 5084 wagers · RTP 29,28%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3583 wagers · RTP 139,66%

Craps / DiceR 3012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2602 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2282 wagers · RTP 253,51%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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