Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #126 of 1,000

P0347

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 83,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 561

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 561

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 520Deviation R 2 081

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 561. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 439

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 157 to R 6 301
Finished ahead: 288 / 1,000 (28,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #477 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,73% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.638
Mean bets / session: 2.421
Loss multiplier: 1.0581×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,3% / 59,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 83213 wagers · RTP 76,98%

Craps / DiceR 3 47412 wagers · RTP 148,93%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7396 wagers · RTP 210,94%

CrashR 1 1384 wagers · RTP 92,16%

European RouletteR 8973 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 8973 wagers · RTP 66,67%

American RouletteR 2991 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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