Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #465 of 1,000

P0348

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 21,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 424

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 576

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 223Deviation -R 1 353

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 576. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 734

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 311 to R 1 844
Finished ahead: 270 / 1,000 (27,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #391 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.373
Mean bets / session: 2.612
Loss multiplier: 1.0055×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,8% / 58,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 12511 wagers · RTP 78,67%

BaccaratR 7794 wagers · RTP 98,63%

Craps / DiceR 5363 wagers · RTP 126,87%

American RouletteR 3652 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3212 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1881 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1821 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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