Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #452 of 1,000

P0349

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 23,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 551

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 449

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 228Deviation -R 1 221

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 449. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 751

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 196 to R 2 838
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #394 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.682
Mean bets / session: 2.014
Loss multiplier: 1.0706×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,4% / 78,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 48111 wagers · RTP 52,51%

BaccaratR 1 1018 wagers · RTP 126,79%

CrashR 8136 wagers · RTP 41,51%

Three-Reel SlotR 5464 wagers · RTP 71,43%

European RouletteR 4123 wagers · RTP 64,56%

Craps / DiceR 4043 wagers · RTP 136,63%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2952 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1491 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1331 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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