Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #379 of 1,000

P0350

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 63,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 309

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 691

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 214Deviation -R 477

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 691. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 202

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 936 to R 3 487
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #451 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.599
Mean bets / session: 2.145
Loss multiplier: 1.0522×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,8% / 68,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6968 wagers · RTP 67,85%

BaccaratR 1 0585 wagers · RTP 118,70%

Three-Reel SlotR 5963 wagers · RTP 133,22%

CrashR 4402 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Craps / DiceR 4152 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 3932 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1991 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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