Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #512 of 1,000

P0351

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 27,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 062

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 938

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 197Deviation -R 1 741

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 938. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 207

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 064 to R 5 541
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #449 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,41% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.751
Mean bets / session: 1.327
Loss multiplier: 1.0764×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,9% / 62,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 7558 wagers · RTP 104,90%

European RouletteR 1 3256 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9614 wagers · RTP 153,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7203 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4632 wagers · RTP 107,99%

Craps / DiceR 4482 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2381 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 2191 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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