Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #82 of 1,000

P0352

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 90,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 14 559

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 4 559

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 566Deviation R 5 125

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 4 559. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 161

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 130 to R 9 304
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #563 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.769
Mean bets / session: 2.432
Loss multiplier: 1.0151×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,8% / 58,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 92910 wagers · RTP 280,53%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 3768 wagers · RTP 60,61%

BaccaratR 1 4214 wagers · RTP 127,52%

European RouletteR 1 0153 wagers · RTP 86,90%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Craps / DiceR 7122 wagers · RTP 118,54%

CrashR 4221 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4221 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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