Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #211 of 1,000

P0353

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 73,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 080

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 80

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 245Deviation R 325

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 80. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 666

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 176 to R 3 207
Finished ahead: 285 / 1,000 (28,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #381 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.707
Mean bets / session: 1.795
Loss multiplier: 1.0651×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,5% / 50,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0837 wagers · RTP 166,01%

BlackjackR 1 0557 wagers · RTP 87,25%

BaccaratR 7825 wagers · RTP 158,82%

American RouletteR 4703 wagers · RTP 91,28%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3402 wagers · RTP 51,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 3342 wagers · RTP 23,80%

European RouletteR 3002 wagers · RTP 160,00%

Craps / DiceR 2962 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1841 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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