Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #358 of 1,000

P0354

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 43,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 425

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 575

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 126Deviation -R 449

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 575. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 467

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 656 to R 1 495
Finished ahead: 282 / 1,000 (28,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #347 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.327
Mean bets / session: 2.952
Loss multiplier: 1.0247×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,0% / 65,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 9527 wagers · RTP 69,92%

BaccaratR 2712 wagers · RTP 195,00%

CrashR 2682 wagers · RTP 102,24%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 1431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1411 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1311 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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