Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #551 of 1,000

P0355

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 12,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 682

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 318

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 240Deviation -R 2 078

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 318. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 906

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 762 to R 4 605
Finished ahead: 292 / 1,000 (29,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #413 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.592
Mean bets / session: 1.516
Loss multiplier: 1.0678×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 49,1% / 65,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2365 wagers · RTP 38,83%

BlackjackR 1 0494 wagers · RTP 52,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 9794 wagers · RTP 51,07%

American RouletteR 7993 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7843 wagers · RTP 70,41%

European RouletteR 5562 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4992 wagers · RTP 249,50%

Craps / DiceR 2591 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies