Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #504 of 1,000

P0356

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 43,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 113

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 887

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 301Deviation -R 1 587

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 887. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 635

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 541 to R 5 939
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #507 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.581
Mean bets / session: 2.346
Loss multiplier: 1.0131×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,7% / 54,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3416 wagers · RTP 155,58%

BaccaratR 1 3246 wagers · RTP 116,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8334 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4612 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4612 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4552 wagers · RTP 153,63%

European RouletteR 4262 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4122 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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