Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #603 of 1,000

P0357

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 10,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 092

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 908

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 278Deviation -R 2 630

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 908. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 177

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 303 to R 4 038
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #453 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.54
Mean bets / session: 1.842
Loss multiplier: 1.0123×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,4% / 63,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 3486 wagers · RTP 99,26%

Three-Reel SlotR 8414 wagers · RTP 56,12%

Craps / DiceR 8194 wagers · RTP 156,53%

CrashR 5322 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4912 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2191 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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