Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #618 of 1,000

P0358

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 28,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 915

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 085

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 587Deviation -R 2 498

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 085. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 916

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 745 to R 8 322
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #539 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.75
Mean bets / session: 2.797
Loss multiplier: 1×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,2% / 74,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 00818 wagers · RTP 109,74%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 9299 wagers · RTP 88,13%

BaccaratR 1 8258 wagers · RTP 122,56%

BlackjackR 1 5397 wagers · RTP 96,36%

CrashR 1 2606 wagers · RTP 97,72%

European RouletteR 1 1325 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 1035 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9404 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 1981 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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