Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #89 of 1,000

P0361

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 93,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 919

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 919

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 319Deviation R 4 238

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 919. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 309

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 522 to R 4 697
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #463 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.61
Mean bets / session: 2.906
Loss multiplier: 1.0685×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,3% / 74,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 31111 wagers · RTP 120,24%

European RouletteR 1 9139 wagers · RTP 123,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7118 wagers · RTP 124,27%

CrashR 8484 wagers · RTP 423,79%

Craps / DiceR 6263 wagers · RTP 127,16%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5953 wagers · RTP 163,03%

BlackjackR 5303 wagers · RTP 130,19%

Three-Reel SlotR 4312 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2241 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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