Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #482 of 1,000

P0363

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 24,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 300

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 700

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 175Deviation -R 1 525

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 700. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 937

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 659 to R 3 607
Finished ahead: 271 / 1,000 (27,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #416 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,47% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.619
Mean bets / session: 1.506
Loss multiplier: 1.0098×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,5% / 46,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 3246 wagers · RTP 63,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0875 wagers · RTP 71,47%

BaccaratR 4392 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2391 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2271 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2261 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2251 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies