Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #19 of 1,000

P0364

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 99,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 33 095

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 23 095

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 294Deviation R 23 389

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 23 095. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 665

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 034 to R 2 013
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #377 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.423
Mean bets / session: 2.664
Loss multiplier: 1.0286×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,7% / 47,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 7948 wagers · RTP 70,90%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5945 wagers · RTP 130,27%

BlackjackR 9184 wagers · RTP 106,75%

Craps / DiceR 7743 wagers · RTP 110,59%

American RouletteR 5922 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4743 wagers · RTP 5 117,51%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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