Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #188 of 1,000

P0365

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 228

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 228

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 315Deviation R 543

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 228. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 372

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 582 to R 5 070
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #475 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,65% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.431
Mean bets / session: 2.245
Loss multiplier: 1.0254×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,4% / 58,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 143,75%

CrashR 1 5755 wagers · RTP 51,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2464 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 1474 wagers · RTP 107,24%

European RouletteR 8773 wagers · RTP 94,41%

American RouletteR 5902 wagers · RTP 248,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 250,00%

BlackjackR 2961 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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