Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #546 of 1,000

P0368

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 3,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 764

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 236

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 142Deviation -R 2 094

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 236. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 642

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 127 to R 2 381
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #375 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.49
Mean bets / session: 1.29
Loss multiplier: 1.0742×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,1% / 50,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1535 wagers · RTP 58,06%

BaccaratR 9254 wagers · RTP 46,49%

Craps / DiceR 9014 wagers · RTP 101,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 3812 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2331 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2201 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2101 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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