Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #257 of 1,000

P0369

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 68,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 867

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 133

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 289Deviation R 156

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 133. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 827

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 745 to R 3 115
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #405 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,66% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.442
Mean bets / session: 1.715
Loss multiplier: 1.073×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,7% / 62,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 9667 wagers · RTP 76,30%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1964 wagers · RTP 71,56%

CrashR 1 1324 wagers · RTP 62,17%

Craps / DiceR 8733 wagers · RTP 66,90%

American RouletteR 7903 wagers · RTP 94,56%

BlackjackR 7823 wagers · RTP 216,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 183,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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