Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #314 of 1,000

P0370

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 72,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 634

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 366

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 291Deviation -R 75

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 366. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 031

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 361 to R 2 614
Finished ahead: 198 / 1,000 (19,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #428 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.705
Mean bets / session: 2.002
Loss multiplier: 1.0204×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,3% / 74,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 50412 wagers · RTP 95,13%

BaccaratR 8447 wagers · RTP 83,41%

European RouletteR 7206 wagers · RTP 230,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

CrashR 5525 wagers · RTP 134,74%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3663 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2672 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2472 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1401 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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