Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #662 of 1,000

P0372

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 3,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 121

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 879

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 283Deviation -R 3 596

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 879. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 503

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 788 to R 5 781
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #489 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.595
Mean bets / session: 2.415
Loss multiplier: 1.0521×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,3% / 65,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 4207 wagers · RTP 89,72%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0606 wagers · RTP 59,12%

BaccaratR 9485 wagers · RTP 73,21%

CrashR 7103 wagers · RTP 41,73%

Craps / DiceR 6713 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5843 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5343 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3872 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2561 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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