Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #445 of 1,000

P0373

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 25,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 654

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 347

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 268Deviation -R 1 079

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 347. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 759

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 113 to R 2 732
Finished ahead: 271 / 1,000 (27,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #391 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.592
Mean bets / session: 1.769
Loss multiplier: 1.0459×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,8% / 61,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 1808 wagers · RTP 107,67%

BaccaratR 1 0437 wagers · RTP 43,91%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5524 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4323 wagers · RTP 81,25%

Craps / DiceR 4173 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1541 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1481 wagers · RTP 500,00%

American RouletteR 1401 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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