Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #472 of 1,000

P0374

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 11,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 382

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 618

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 175Deviation -R 1 443

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 618. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 588

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 967 to R 1 994
Finished ahead: 286 / 1,000 (28,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #370 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,01% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.349
Mean bets / session: 1.958
Loss multiplier: 1.0505×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,7% / 63,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 0455 wagers · RTP 99,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 4212 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4142 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3972 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3922 wagers · RTP 99,49%

BlackjackR 2081 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 1901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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