Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #498 of 1,000

P0376

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 28,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 176

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 824

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 263Deviation -R 1 562

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 824. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 139

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 760 to R 2 898
Finished ahead: 222 / 1,000 (22,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #444 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,71% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.581
Mean bets / session: 2.118
Loss multiplier: 1.002×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,5% / 57,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 64611 wagers · RTP 52,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9156 wagers · RTP 17,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5994 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4733 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4173 wagers · RTP 159,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 3152 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2772 wagers · RTP 51,26%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1471 wagers · RTP 125,00%

American RouletteR 1451 wagers · RTP 900,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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