Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #525 of 1,000

P0377

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 25,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 961

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 039

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 280Deviation -R 1 759

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 039. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 995

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 059 to R 4 482
Finished ahead: 272 / 1,000 (27,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #423 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.642
Mean bets / session: 2.117
Loss multiplier: 1.0016×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,0% / 49,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0319 wagers · RTP 37,21%

BaccaratR 1 9168 wagers · RTP 101,14%

Craps / DiceR 1 1845 wagers · RTP 84,12%

BlackjackR 9364 wagers · RTP 43,59%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4852 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2451 wagers · RTP 300,00%

American RouletteR 2261 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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