Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #356 of 1,000

P0379

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 57,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 435

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 565

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 145Deviation -R 420

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 565. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 781

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 253 to R 3 073
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #398 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.495
Mean bets / session: 1.965
Loss multiplier: 1.0682×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,5% / 79,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 8445 wagers · RTP 73,13%

BaccaratR 5813 wagers · RTP 127,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 5703 wagers · RTP 99,30%

CrashR 5273 wagers · RTP 44,59%

BlackjackR 3842 wagers · RTP 98,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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