Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #483 of 1,000

P0380

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 4,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 295

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 705

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 139Deviation -R 1 566

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 705. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 652

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 675 to R 2 135
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #378 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,33% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.598
Mean bets / session: 1.308
Loss multiplier: 1.0105×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,1% / 76,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 4844 wagers · RTP 24,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3873 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3723 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3713 wagers · RTP 70,08%

BaccaratR 2472 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2382 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 1321 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1151 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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