Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #397 of 1,000

P0383

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 62,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 191

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 809

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 667Deviation -R 142

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 809. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 453

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 529 to R 4 507
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #479 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,75% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.579
Mean bets / session: 2.842
Loss multiplier: 1.0627×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,1% / 63,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 83910 wagers · RTP 77,11%

BaccaratR 1 6859 wagers · RTP 155,07%

American RouletteR 1 5558 wagers · RTP 255,43%

CrashR 9335 wagers · RTP 25,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 7694 wagers · RTP 81,14%

Craps / DiceR 7584 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7034 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5453 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3412 wagers · RTP 74,34%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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