Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #565 of 1,000

P0384

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 18,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 569

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 431

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 340Deviation -R 2 091

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 431. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 218

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 260 to R 4 431
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #454 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,96% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.676
Mean bets / session: 2.975
Loss multiplier: 1.0439×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,3% / 63,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 98417 wagers · RTP 81,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 65510 wagers · RTP 52,57%

Craps / DiceR 7294 wagers · RTP 47,19%

BlackjackR 6934 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5353 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5173 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

CrashR 4673 wagers · RTP 392,72%

Three-Reel SlotR 3412 wagers · RTP 151,61%

European RouletteR 2021 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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