Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #251 of 1,000

P0386

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 75,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 899

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 101

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 275Deviation R 174

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 101. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 356

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 184 to R 4 760
Finished ahead: 229 / 1,000 (22,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #473 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.685
Mean bets / session: 1.898
Loss multiplier: 1.0258×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,3% / 61,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6818 wagers · RTP 110,77%

BaccaratR 1 4737 wagers · RTP 87,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4437 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 6363 wagers · RTP 65,41%

Craps / DiceR 6103 wagers · RTP 132,13%

BlackjackR 4502 wagers · RTP 98,22%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1981 wagers · RTP 900,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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