Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #113 of 1,000

P0387

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 88,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 168

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 168

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 339Deviation R 2 506

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 168. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 458

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 615 to R 5 608
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #483 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.54
Mean bets / session: 2.977
Loss multiplier: 1.0519×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,9% / 56,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2 53110 wagers · RTP 140,89%

BaccaratR 2 1598 wagers · RTP 120,89%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8447 wagers · RTP 102,45%

Three-Reel SlotR 7303 wagers · RTP 34,25%

BlackjackR 5472 wagers · RTP 224,95%

European RouletteR 5052 wagers · RTP 133,66%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 2411 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2361 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2351 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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