Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #463 of 1,000

P0388

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 6,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 437

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 563

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 117Deviation -R 1 445

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 563. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 390

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 689 to R 1 823
Finished ahead: 310 / 1,000 (31,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #329 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.352
Mean bets / session: 1.305
Loss multiplier: 1.04×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,5% / 78,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 9144 wagers · RTP 104,40%

BaccaratR 8904 wagers · RTP 23,03%

European RouletteR 6963 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 4472 wagers · RTP 96,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2051 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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