Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #562 of 1,000

P0389

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 29,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 578

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 422

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 379Deviation -R 2 043

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 422. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 353

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 793 to R 5 554
Finished ahead: 311 / 1,000 (31,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #466 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,76% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.662
Mean bets / session: 1.39
Loss multiplier: 1.0163×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,2% / 71,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4176 wagers · RTP 158,56%

BaccaratR 7723 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 6703 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5382 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4732 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2421 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2271 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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