Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #430 of 1,000

P0390

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 61,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 863

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 137

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 412Deviation -R 725

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 137. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 670

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 013 to R 6 617
Finished ahead: 223 / 1,000 (22,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #510 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.671
Mean bets / session: 2.824
Loss multiplier: 1.0153×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,5% / 73,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9879 wagers · RTP 126,62%

American RouletteR 1 5637 wagers · RTP 26,62%

BaccaratR 1 3176 wagers · RTP 161,24%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4622 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4502 wagers · RTP 63,61%

BlackjackR 4452 wagers · RTP 97,98%

European RouletteR 4302 wagers · RTP 101,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4272 wagers · RTP 51,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 4162 wagers · RTP 126,80%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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