Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #547 of 1,000

P0391

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 8,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 759

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 241

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 191Deviation -R 2 050

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 241. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 862

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 468 to R 3 796
Finished ahead: 281 / 1,000 (28,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #405 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,01% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.531
Mean bets / session: 1.821
Loss multiplier: 1.0734×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,0% / 55,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0946 wagers · RTP 27,52%

BaccaratR 9085 wagers · RTP 98,14%

European RouletteR 7724 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3852 wagers · RTP 96,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 1911 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1791 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 1781 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1751 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies