Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #436 of 1,000

P0393

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 28,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 799

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 201

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 75Deviation -R 1 126

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 201. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 650

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 034 to R 2 225
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #381 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.339
Mean bets / session: 2.736
Loss multiplier: 1.073×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,8% / 58,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5113 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3682 wagers · RTP 102,72%

American RouletteR 3492 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3412 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1831 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1821 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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