Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #628 of 1,000

P0394

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 9,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 785

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 215

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 345Deviation -R 2 870

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 215. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 239

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 538 to R 4 167
Finished ahead: 292 / 1,000 (29,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #457 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.428
Mean bets / session: 2.092
Loss multiplier: 1.0664×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,4% / 78,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 3127 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5683 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5353 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2221 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2171 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1561 wagers · RTP 125,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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