Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #441 of 1,000

P0397

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 39,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 727

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 273

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 335Deviation -R 938

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 273. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 925

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 809 to R 2 471
Finished ahead: 284 / 1,000 (28,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #417 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.347
Mean bets / session: 2.235
Loss multiplier: 1.0057×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,3% / 77,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9915 wagers · RTP 94,85%

European RouletteR 8224 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 8014 wagers · RTP 32,30%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7454 wagers · RTP 106,48%

BaccaratR 7444 wagers · RTP 47,31%

American RouletteR 5833 wagers · RTP 61,75%

BlackjackR 3892 wagers · RTP 96,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1811 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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