Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #412 of 1,000

P0399

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 31,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 017

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 983

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 176Deviation -R 807

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 983. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 575

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 796 to R 2 671
Finished ahead: 288 / 1,000 (28,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #365 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.458
Mean bets / session: 2.395
Loss multiplier: 1.018×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,8% / 68,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0429 wagers · RTP 104,86%

BaccaratR 7176 wagers · RTP 66,67%

CrashR 5805 wagers · RTP 54,31%

Three-Reel SlotR 4374 wagers · RTP 49,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3753 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3613 wagers · RTP 132,41%

BlackjackR 2502 wagers · RTP 170,80%

European RouletteR 1281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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