Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #75 of 1,000

P0400

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 99,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 371

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 371

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 109Deviation R 5 480

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 371. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 446

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 390 to R 1 217
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #341 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.33
Mean bets / session: 1.51
Loss multiplier: 1.0076×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,9% / 48,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 7064 wagers · RTP 146,46%

CrashR 5883 wagers · RTP 382,65%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4782 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3992 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3212 wagers · RTP 99,69%

American RouletteR 2852 wagers · RTP 1 629,47%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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