Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #958 of 1,000

P0401

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 48,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 54

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 946

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 245Deviation -R 8 701

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 946. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 935

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 186 to R 38 033
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 253 / 1,000 (25,3%)
Median rank: #952 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.24
Mean bets / session: 5.583
Loss multiplier: 1.0991×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,4% / 105,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 73635 wagers · RTP 36,89%

European RouletteR 6 96817 wagers · RTP 98,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 49441 wagers · RTP 50,91%

BlackjackR 5 76814 wagers · RTP 79,30%

BaccaratR 3 5679 wagers · RTP 3,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 83112 wagers · RTP 46,97%

American RouletteR 1 45211 wagers · RTP 123,55%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3437 wagers · RTP 16,53%

Craps / DiceR 1 19511 wagers · RTP 136,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 6958 wagers · RTP 705,04%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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