Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #980 of 1,000

P0402

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 22,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 995

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 897Deviation -R 9 098

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 995. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 936

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 004 to R 37 477
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
Median rank: #951 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.101
Mean bets / session: 5.885
Loss multiplier: 1.0011×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,4% / 97,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 34110 wagers · RTP 47,92%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 90240 wagers · RTP 57,84%

BlackjackR 3 40218 wagers · RTP 23,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 20913 wagers · RTP 110,13%

CrashR 2 81925 wagers · RTP 88,05%

Craps / DiceR 1 60512 wagers · RTP 81,99%

American RouletteR 1 50219 wagers · RTP 6,86%

BaccaratR 1 0537 wagers · RTP 24,91%

Three-Reel SlotR 90715 wagers · RTP 46,75%

Lottery / JackpotR 56813 wagers · RTP 12,68%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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