Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #960 of 1,000

P0403

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 20,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 52

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 948

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 070Deviation -R 8 878

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 948. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 415

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 988 to R 28 062
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 18 / 1,000 (1,8%)
Median rank: #914 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.513
Mean bets / session: 4.501
Loss multiplier: 1.0504×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,1% / 103,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 9 13137 wagers · RTP 88,69%

CrashR 6 01232 wagers · RTP 74,84%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 56637 wagers · RTP 26,95%

BaccaratR 3 34216 wagers · RTP 42,41%

European RouletteR 2 3678 wagers · RTP 131,69%

Craps / DiceR 1 6067 wagers · RTP 97,51%

Lottery / JackpotR 92213 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9158 wagers · RTP 49,13%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9159 wagers · RTP 114,08%

American RouletteR 8643 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies