Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #887 of 1,000

P0404

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 59,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 444

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 556

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 571Deviation -R 5 985

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 556. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 396

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 988 to R 29 795
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 5 / 1,000 (0,5%)
Median rank: #914 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,36% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.286
Mean bets / session: 3.747
Loss multiplier: 1.0129×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,0% / 128,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 19 33727 wagers · RTP 109,62%

CrashR 11 50023 wagers · RTP 171,74%

European RouletteR 11 40016 wagers · RTP 35,70%

American RouletteR 8 97012 wagers · RTP 68,09%

Craps / DiceR 5 9858 wagers · RTP 108,81%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 91113 wagers · RTP 78,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 75023 wagers · RTP 21,74%

BlackjackR 3 2564 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 70,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 150,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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